NHL Notes: Post Olympic Break Edition
Welcome back to another edition of NHL notes! It has been a while since we broke down the league. However, with the NHL returning after a three week hiatus for some amazing best-on-best hockey, now is as good of a time as ever to jump back into things.
NHL Notes: Exiting Olympic Break
Buyers and Sellers Starting to Stand Out:
This was obviously true heading into the break. But with the NHL Trade Deadline just a week away, it has officially become noticeable which teams are calling it quits on the year. Teams such as the Toronto Maple Leafs, who had back-to-back disastrous performances out of the break in Florida, seem to officially realize they need to sell.
The Leafs, Devils, and Rangers are all clearly out of the mix. And the Flyers, Panthers, and Senators are all right on the border of it too. The Senators may feel like they should stand put because they just need some saves. But yet another loss after outshooting their opponents on Thursday, it is starting to feel like the door is closing. The Panthers are rumoured to be waiting for the last possible moment to make a call, which seems more than fair given nobody would want to see them if they make it in. I would expect teams such as the Capitals and Blue Jackets to stay put given they are about 5 points back.
In the West, it is also becoming a little more clear. The Jets, Flames, Blackhawks, Blues, and Canucks are all for sure out of it. San Jose and the Kings did a soft-buy earlier in the year, so you wouldn’t expect them to be sellers at this deadline. It is shaping up where there look to be 8-9 teams in the “for sure” sellers range, and possibly 3-4 more that look to sell some UFAs, which may make for an interesting next week.
Dubas Continues to Deal
Kyle Dubas remains the busiest GM in the entire NHL, pulling off a Kulak for Girard trade, in which he gets the better player AND the 2nd round pick. The Penguins continue their 12-18 month stretch at being one of the most efficient teams to weaponize their cap space, and turn it into legit assets. They now have two picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of each of the next 3 drafts, and are currently 5 points into a playoff spot.
Considering bottoming out was never a legitimate option with Crosby on the team, this seems like a great pivot and Penguins fans are rightfully excited about where this goes. As for the trade itself, having Karlsson, Letang, and Girard all on the same blueline will be very interesting. The ability to move the puck should be among the best in the league, but the play in their own end may leave some to be desired.
For the Avalanche side of this, you feel a bigger move HAS to be coming. They have been rumoured to be in the centre market, and names such as Nazem Kadri and Vincent Trochek have been thrown out there. Both players have term left on their deal, which would make some sense for the Avs.
If they do manage to score an upgrade to their forward core, this trade looks less bad. However, if they are doing this purely to get off of Girard’s $5 million owed next season, this feels like an extremely short-sighted move.
It is very easy to see how a player such as Girard has limited value at the deadline with 1.5 years left, but more value at the draft in a rising cap environment. Last offseason, we saw plenty of teams that had 20+ mil in space trade for players that in previous years would not have been positive value returns, simply because they knew they would not be spending their cap space in Free Agency. It is not very hard to see how a team such as Columbus, Anaheim, or Winnipeg talks themselves into offering a mid-round pick for Girard this offseason, instead of giving another defencemen a 5x5 deal.
Olympic Injuries Something to Keep Eye On
Having NHLers back at the Winter Olympics was absolutely phenomenal. Some of the best hockey I have seen in a long time, from all of the countries involved. However, it will be interesting to monitor what NHL GMs and owners say after the year is over about players who got hurt at the Olympics. All of the players and most of the fans will sign up for the inevitable risk of serious injuries, but they are not the ones paying millions of dollars to these players.
We saw a number of key players be ruled out already, including Crosby who is out for at least 4 weeks, and Rantanen who is on the injured reserve. Both these players are key for teams that are firmly in a playoff spot. Dallas may be able to whether the storm, but Pittsburgh will be in tough without their captain. Not to mention the Kings who brought on Panarin before the break, and immediately lost Fiala for the rest of the season while hunting a playoff spot. Makes it immediately feel like a lateral move at best, despite it being completely out of their control.
In reality, this tournament means so much to the players, it is very hard to see them missing France in 4 years, and especially USA in 8, but it is no doubt a storyline to monitor closer once the year wraps up. With NHL owners getting no revenue benefit from this event, it will be interesting to see how committed they truly are to “growing the game”.
The Stretch Run is Here
As an NHL fan, I absolutely love that fresh off of the best 3 weeks of hockey we have had in years, it feels like the playoffs are right around the corner. There is a lot to rightfully complain about when it comes to the NHL schedule this year. But having the trade deadline already be a week away, and then 20 or less games for all NHL teams is a nice feeling.
In theory, it should significantly cut down on the “dead” stretch of the year which usually occurred in February. Where there are still 30+ games left, and everyone is sort of going through the motions before the Trade Deadline. Instead? It feels like a fresh start. And any teams that are 5-8 points out know they need to explode out of the gates to give themselves a shot. The last six weeks or so of the season should feel a lot quicker than normal, and playoff hockey will be here before we know it.